Ukraine

Too Valuable to Lose

Little has been said of the profound problems the West faces if Russia wins in Ukraine.

Imagine such a Russian victory.

All Western weapons handed to Ukraine go straight to Russian (& Chinese) R&D weapons labs.

All Ukrainian innovations & tactical techniques created to fight the Russians get assimilated into the Russian order of battle.

The population of Ukraine becomes the plaything of Russia, and while we can’t be certain how reliable or loyal they will be, at least two-thirds of the AFU might be incorporated into a rebuilt Russian Army. Here I am assuming that one-third head for the hills and the forests and become anti-Russian partisans.

Within 5 years of such a Russian victory, the Russian military will be a recovered force with hybridised Western technologies.

Would it be a far harder nut to crack in future conflict?

Presumably, it would be whoever would be in power in the Kremlin, since at Putin’s current age, there is no guarantee he’d still be in power by the end of this war.
Some people have said that the West could find and train anti-Russian partisans for ‘as long as it takes.’

However, this would be a less favourable strategic position for the West, as Ukraine would have been conquered. Forward-deployed Russian forces would face off against NATO forces along the Western border of Ukraine, complicating NATO defensive preparations and altering the European balance of power.

Now add to this the possibility of a significant American drawdown of U.S. forces in Europe, or their complete withdrawal. This worst-case, yet possible and perhaps even likely scenario, will complete Europe’s enfeeblement, leaving it vulnerable to further Russian aggression. Hardly an appealing prospect.

So perhaps the best strategy is to keep Russia from successfully pressing the offensive by slowing it down and making it so expensive in blood and treasure that perhaps, rapid and catastrophic political collapse in Moscow becomes a possibility. This is the current strategy.

As young Russians are willing to make the sacrifice, Putin is prepared to make the expenditure. And Putin has been and continues to be wasteful in husbanding his human and military resources on the battlefield. He’s fighting a Soviet-style war with 21st-century weapons, and without the advantages of Soviet demographics or industries.

Currently, the trajectory appears to favour Russia slightly from an attritional perspective. But Ukraine is holding its own. Any slip-ups by either Kyiv or Moscow at this stage would be catastrophic.

But more so for Europe, the loss of Ukraine, now an important test bed for weapons, tactics and alliances, Zelensky’s defeat, and the end of Ukrainian sovereignty would be a profoundly destabilising event with far-reaching consequences. A dagger pointed at the very heart of NATO.